Full Up

Full up.  Stocks slipped yesterday in a thinly traded session as traders just couldn’t keep their minds on the bull run.  No news and low volume gave profit takers the upper hand in stocks.

 

N O T E W O R T H Y

 

It’s that time of year.  Being that this is the last trading day of the year I thought it might be a good time to name my Daily Market Note Person of The Year.  Up +28.5% year to date, the S&P500’s annual gain is close to 2013’s +29.6% gain and beyond that there is just 1995’s +34.11% gain… that was 24 years ago!  I know one person who is probably on the edge of his seat expecting the title but unfortunately, and respectfully, it is not Him.  More on that in a bit.  This year’s award goes to the United States Federal Reserve Bank.  Remember last Christmas Eve on Wall Street? WHILE YOU WERE TUNING IN TO THE YULE LOG markets were in a free fall with the Dow Jones Industrials closing down -653 points, or -2.91%.  The pain was not limited to that session as stocks were already struggling since making all time highs in early October.  Economic numbers began to show some signs of weakness and the effects of the 2017 Tax package were beginning to wear off, exposing more accurate corporate earnings growth, which wasn’t bad but just not as good… and deceiving. Traders began to wonder when the economic growth cycle would finally end.  On December 26th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell came out publicly as a dove and sent markets on a bullish journey that would last throughout 2019. The Fed did not just make a subtle shift.  Their choice of wording and messaging was clear, concise, and bold: “Investors, we feel your stress and we got your back!”  They also proved that actions over words count by lowering key interest rates three consecutive times and increasing the size of their balance sheet to provide short term liquidity.  There was a new “Fed Put” and stock traders responded with a rally.  The message, the actions, and overall behavior was consistent and methodical, even in the midst of a Presidential bullying campaign. Now on to why He is not the one. Yes, markets traded up after the announcement of a Phase One trade deal with China, but let’s remember that the partial deal is a solution to a problem of his own making.  We have yet to see what the true end result will be from the trade war, but one thing is quite clear: many companies in the US have suffered as a result and the stock market would most likely be stronger had war not been declared.  On again off again talks and lots of misinformation made 2019 a difficult year for investors… but for the Fed and their unwavering support.

 

THE MARKETS

 

Stocks took a break yesterday, trading off in a thinly traded session.  With no news and year-end trades already made, stocks drifted into the red.  The S&P500 dropped by -0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded off by -0.64%, the Russell 2000 sank by -0.29%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index slipped by -0.67%.  Bonds slipped as well and 10-year treasury yields were unchanged at 1.87%.

 

UP NXT

 

– The FHFA House Price Index is expected to show a growth of +0.4% compared to last month’s +0.6% growth.

– The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is expected to come in at 128.4, more confident than last month’s 125.5 reading.

–  Stock markets will have a full session today but bond markets will close at 2:00 PM EST. Markets are closed tomorrow for New Years.

 

I wish you and your families a happy, healthy New Year!  Thank you for reading and I look forward to spending 2020 with you.

 

daily chartbook 2019-12-31

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES.

Muriel Siebert & Co., LLC is an affiliated broker/dealer of the public holding company, Siebert Financial Corporation, which also owns Siebert AdvisorNXT, LLC. Siebert AdvisorNXT, LLC is a registered investments advisor (RIA) with the SEC and with state securities regulators. We may only transact business or render personal investment advice in states where we are registered, filed notice or otherwise excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Investment Advisor products are NOT insured by the FDIC, SIPC any federal government agency or Siebert’s parent company or affiliates.

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